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newspapers03.jpgYou’d be hard-pressed to find an industry in a bigger slump than the newspaper sector. Newsstand sales are down. Circulation is down. Advertising revenues are down. It’s no secret that the Web is taking a big bite out of the business, as more and more readers flock to the Internet to get their news fixes and also to sites like Craigslist, Yelp and Monster.com, to name a few, for classified ads, information about local companies and job listings.

As such, shares of most newspaper stocks have been pummeled and several are trading at nearly 10-year lows. The New York Times Co. (NYT) is down 20 percent so far this year. Gannett (GCI) has plunged nearly 30 percent. And Lee Enterprises (LEE) and McClatchy (MNI) have each plummeted more than 50 percent.

Not even the pending takeovers of Dow Jones (DJ) by News Corp. (NWS) and the private equity-led buyout of Tribune (TRB) have been enough to rejuvenate investor interest in this moribund group.

So with all this doom and gloom, it’s interesting to note that some of the more well-respected institutional investment firms in the U.S. are loading up on shares of these beleaguered companies. Perhaps they sense that the sector may finally be nearing a nadir and that the stocks could head higher as newspaper publishers do more to transition to the Web?

According to figures compiled by data provider FactSet Research, Ariel Capital Management has boosted its stake in Lee and McClatchy in the past few months, for example. T. Rowe Price and Fidelity Management and Research each increased their stakes in Gannett, McClatchy and E.W. Scripps (SSI), which also owns cable networks in addition to newspapers. And Wellington Management, the company that subadvises for some of the Vanguard family of funds, has increased its positions in The New York Times, Gannett and Journal Register Co. (JRC).

So should investors follow the “smart money”? Not so fast.

These firms may be hoping that their bets will pan out in the long-term. But most investors will require Job-like patience before they see a turnaround in this industry and it may not be worth the hassle to own stocks in what is expected to remain a brutally tough business.

One mutual fund manager said investors need to be selective in the newspaper group and not rush into the entire industry simply because the stocks might seem “cheap.” Just because the stocks have already fallen sharply does not mean they won’t fall even further.

“We might look to buy some newspaper stocks on a value basis but we typically move to where the action is in the market and there’s not a whole lot of action in that industry,” said Craig Hodges, co-manager of the Dallas-based Hodges fund.

But Hodges said he thinks that it’s possible that there could be more consolidation in the industry and for this reason, his fund owns newspaper publisher Belo (BLC), which he sees as a likely takeover target because the company generates healthy amounts of cash flow and has attractive assets such as The Dallas Morning News and The Providence Journal. Still, Belo is the only newspaper stock he owns in his fund and it’s not a pure-play publisher either since it also owns TV stations.

To that end, owning newspaper companies that have more than just a print business is key.

Scott Black, president of Delphi Management, a Boston-based institutional investment firm, said this is a main reason why he owns The Washington Post Co. (WPO), which is one of the few publishing stocks that’s up year-to-date. Black said he likes the company not for its flagship newspaper but for its rapidly growing Kaplan educational division, which accounts for nearly half of the company’s revenues.

“The Washington Post, to be frank, is an educational testing service with a minority newspaper subsidiary,” Black said. He does own some Gannett as well though because he thinks the company is well run and is “so statistically cheap that it’s ridiculous.” But he does not think investors should put new money into the newspaper group, even if other money managers are.

Black said that in addition to the threat from the Internet, newspaper companies are likely to struggle in the next few months due to weakness in the financial services and auto industries, two sectors that have historically been big advertisers in newspapers.

“The halcyon era of newspapers is long gone,” Black said. And so, it seems, are the days when these stocks can reward their shareholders.

Posted by Paul R. La Monica 11:07 am 6 Comments comment | Add a comment

The newspaper industry is seeing huge hits due to a sluggish real estate market in Florida. I work in newspaper media and have seen a huge hit to the financial industries as well. I see this trickling down and becoming larger scale- with retailers not doing as well their advertising is down, too. Perhaps as they make the transition more to internet there is hope, but that is a long hard road. Young people today rarely read the news in print- they read it online b/c it’s convenient.

Posted By Jennifer, Palm Beach, Florida : October 16, 2007 12:00 pm

If you really want to know the direction of newspapers check out the 3 year price graph of JRC, a public pure play newspaperr company based on east coast with mid west papers… their price history will give you pause about a come back to “the good old days” of high margins and lots of classified ads…

Posted By Darrell, Boyne City, Michigan : September 29, 2007 12:10 pm

Newspapers lost huge revenues to radio in the 1930s and television in the 1950s.They adapted and recovered.History is likely to repeat itself,and a lot of money will be made.In the meantime,several pay generous dividends.(I grew up on radio–the marvel of its’ time.)

Posted By F.Spinelli,Meriden,CT : September 27, 2007 8:00 pm

I live in a small town where Gate House Media owns daily newspapers. The town is drying up thanks to the major Super Center shopping outlet. Media stocks are going to continue to get hammered so long as people shop at Wal Mart.

Posted By Lynne, McPherson, Kansas : September 26, 2007 5:08 pm

I baught the New York times last year at $24.00 to bad I didn,t sell it when it went to $27.00, Now it is at $19,26 and sinking like a ship. My gradson likes the zNew York Times, He just graduated from Burkley, And told me to buy more shares. I am looking for the low. Hope it don,t go down to $10.00 a share. While I am holding on, MY grandson says they publish the best world news. and are up to date. with the latest news. I wish they would include their classified add section with the papers they sell nation wide. People would be more inclined to buy it, If the are relocating to the East Coast. They could look for places to live, at airports, train stations, and bus stations, I would love to write for a paper, I would modernize, For example, I could do an article about getting a printer on your computer,
what a job, Each kind of printer has a different software program to put in your computer. An article about the Quarter horse Congress, One of the largest horse shows. Handicaped people that have high paying jobs, or excell in sports, Just some of my ideas, I hope a News Paper reads my comment.
thanks for printing my coment.
Carol Graham. carolescn@aol.com

Posted By Carol Graham.Escondido, Calif : September 26, 2007 4:20 pm

I have a financial stake in one of the “pummeled” corporations mentioned above and I can tell you we are going nowhere fast. Worse, our managers have lost touch with what readers and advertisers want and are trying to turn back the clock or playing follow-the-leader rather than pushing forward with new ideas. The result is a slow death spiral on two prongs as paper readers die or turn to our competitors and new readers fail to notice we exist at all. meanwhile my employee-owned stock is off almost 65 percent in six months. This business needs emergency surgery and its leaders are handing out aspirin and counting the days until their retirement.

Posted By Larry, Oceanside, CA : September 26, 2007 11:44 am

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