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This year should be a a great one for owners of multiplexes. Three big sequels are due out in May: “Spider-Man 3″, “Shrek the Third,” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.” These movies are expected to kick off a huge summer at the box office, one that could possibly break records.

And several private equity firms are hoping to cash in on this by taking owners of theater chains public. Cinemark (CNK), which operates nearly 400 theaters in the U.S. and Latin America and lists Madison Dearborn Partners as its controlling shareholder, went public on Tuesday morning. The company raised $532 million by selling 28 million shares  at $19 a share, the high end of its range.

Wall Street gave mixed reviews to Cinemark. The stock enjoyed a minute pop at the opening bell, beginning trading at $19.01 and hitting $19.30 at one point. But the stock quickly stumbled at hit a low of $17.75 before bouncing back to about $18.90 in mid-morning trading. 

So what will Cinemark’s debut mean for its larger rival, AMC Entertainment? That company, which was formed from the merger of AMC and Loews in 2005, is tentatively scheduled to go public next week and trade under the ticker symbol AC. AMC (AC) also has some high-profile private equity firms backing it, including Apollo Management, Bain Capital Partners and The Carlyle Group.

It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that the private equity firms are seeking to cash in now. The overall IPO market has heated up this year. In fact, I predicted a Cinemark IPO back in January before the company filed. In addition to the big May sequels, this summer’s movie slate is filled to the brim with films that should do extremely well, including new Pixar cartoon “Ratatouille”, much anticipated movies based on the “Transformers” and “The Simpsons” and the latest in the adventures of “Harry Potter.”

Shares of Carmike Cinemas (CKEC) are up nearly 30 percent so far this year. Larger rival Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) hasn’t been as fortunate; its shares are down 2 percent in 2007 but are up about 6 percent in the past month thanks to an upgrade to a “Buy” from an analyst at Soleil - Research Associates and an initiation of coverage on the stock by Wedbush Morgan Securities with a “Buy” rating.

Big screen operator IMAX (IMAX) has also capitalized on strong ticket sales for the IMAX version of “300″, which currently is the highest-grossing film of the year. IMAX is also going to be showing big screen versions of “Spider-Man 3″ and the latest “Harry Potter” film. Full disclosure: “300″ and the latest “Harry Potter” movie are being released by Warner Bros., which is also owned by Time Warner, the parent company of CNNMoney.com.

There is even optimism about National Cinemedia (NCMI), a company that sells advertising in movie theaters. It went public in February. Even though there seems to be a growing backlash to commercials that run before movies, the business is booming. National Cinemedia reported a 66 percent increase in sales during the fourth quarter and the company’s stock is up 30 percent since its IPO. 

And Comcast’s (CMCSA) recent decision to buy online movie ticket seller Fandango is yet another example of how companies are seeing green on the silver screen.

But the movie business is a notoriously tough one and theater chains have suffered in the past due to overexpansion and poor years at the box office earlier this decade. Box office receipts grew sluggishly in 2003 and 2004 and actually declined in 2005 before bouncing back last year.   

Still, hope springs eternal in Hollywood…and apparently on Wall Street as well. 

“There are a lot of expected blockbusers this summer and there is a good chance for back-to-back attendance increases this year,” said Marla Backer of Soleil - Research Associates. “This will help conivince investors that this is a cyclical business on the upswing.”

And looking ahead to 2008, she said next year could be another strong one at the box office. A new Indiana Jones movie is on tap for the summer of 2008 as well as another “Chronicles of Narnia” movie and “Batman Begins” sequel.

Posted by Paul R. La Monica 10:51 am 0 Comments comment | Add a comment

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